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What's the most effective way to explain to a skeptic that evolution is true even though it's just a theory?
For one thing, you can stop confusing theory with hypothesis. In science a theory is our current best explanation for how something we observe in nature is happening. Evolution has been proved as absolutely as gravity or fire, but it will never be a law, because a law is a mathematical formula for predicting the behaviour of things like gases and energy, and living things just aren’t that predictable.
Ask your friend whether they believe that children tend to look like their parents, and that the members of one family look a bit different from the members of another family. If they know that this is true, then they understand the basics of genetic inheritance.
Leaving aside identical twins and triplets, clones and the very inbred, in any group of organisms there will be some variation. They don’t all look or act identically, and this is mainly because they have slightly different genes.
In any given environment (except for those which are universally fatal such as the wrong end of an erupting volcano), there will be some individuals who do better than others, because their particular gene variations are particularly suited to that environment.
Those individuals whose genes best fit them to reproduce in a given environment, will tend to have the most offspring. That means that their particular genes, their family type, will become more common from generation to generation. That changes the average genetic make-up and appearance of the group.
And that’s all that evolution is - a slow, gradual change in average genetic make-up, as those individuals who are best fitted to have offspring in a given environment, tend to have the most offspring. If the environment changes, the forms which are most favoured also change and the population heads off in a new direction.
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